Calgary Stampeders (@1.4) vs Toronto Argonauts (@3.1)

Our Prediction:

Calgary Stampeders will win

Calgary Stampeders – Toronto Argonauts Match Prediction | 21-09-2019 19:00

Watching Calgary play the last couple of weeks should make me stay away from the high variance of their recent performances and back the ever consistent Eskimos, but it's the battle of Alberta and Calgary always finds a way to win at home. I seriously doubt Stampeder starting QB Arbuckle is going to have a flawless game, but it doesn't matter, history is on his side. Regardless of the circumstances, Calgary wins this game a lot at home, and they're up against an Edmonton offense that can be contained and kept out of the red zone. Calgary wins a close one in "Cowtown," but take the point for bad beat insurance.

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They have allowed 4 passing touchdowns in 2019 which ranks 2nd out of all the teams in the league and 1st in the West. Their pass defense is one of the most dominate groups in the CFL. For the 2019 season, they have given up 371 yards rushing and 6 rushing TDs. In discussing yards rushing, they are giving up 92.8 yards per contest ranking them 4th in the CFL and 4th in the West. They are giving up 229.2 passing yards per contest and 917 total yards through the air over the course of 4 contests. The Calgary Stampeders are giving up 26 points per contest ranking them 3rd in the West and 4th in the CFL. For passing yards allowed per game, the Stampeders sit in 2nd in the West and 2nd in the CFL. In discussing points given up, they have given up 104 points in total.

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This comes out to an average of 340 yards per contest, which puts them at 7th in the CFL and 3rd in the conference. In total, they have conceded 613 yards rushing through 4 games. When it comes to yards through the air, the Argonauts have conceded 1,360 yards over the course of 4 games. In regard to yards rushing, Toronto is allowing 153.2 yards per contest which puts them at 4th in the conference and 9th in the CFL. Teams are completing 73.6% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 10.73 yards per try. In terms of overall statistics, they will have to defend better if they want to get the win this week. In total, they are conceding 493.2 yards per contest which puts them at 4th in the conference and 9th overall. The Argonauts have one of the most lackluster defenses in the CFL allowing 40.5 points per contest, which puts them at 4th in the conference and 9th in the CFL. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 6.07 yards per carry which puts them at 4th in the conference and 9th in the CFL overall. They have conceded 10 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns.

The Calgary Stampeders average 355 yards per contest overall which ranks 7th in the CFL and 4th in the West. During the season thus far, the Stampeders have thrown for a total of 1,191 yards through the air which breaks down to 297.8 passing yards per contest which ranks 3rd in the CFL and 2nd in the West. As a team, they have a total of 229 yards rushing through 4 contests, so they'll need to look to improve on these numbers if they want to compete with the better teams in the league. In terms of offensive proficiency, the Stampeders leave a lot to be desired in terms of scoring in the league. Calgary hasn't done much to make teams fear their rushing game by averaging 57.2 yards per contest, which ranks 8th in the CFL and 5th in the West. The Stampeders head into this matchup 2-1 and they sit in 2nd in the Western Conference. When looking at their ability to score points, the Stampeders sit in 3rd in the West and 4th out of all the teams in the league with an average of 31 points per contest. The Calgary Stampeders will be standing on the other sideline and are looking to get a win under their belt this next game.

During the season thus far, the Argonauts have passed the ball for a total of 3,269 passing yards which breaks down to 297.2 passing yards per contest ranking them 2nd in the league. When looking at their ability to score points, the Argonauts are currently ranked 3rd in the Eastern Conference and 8th out of the nine teams in the CFL averaging 20.4 points per game. The Argonauts head into this game 2-9 and they sit in 4th in the Eastern Conference. Toronto hasn't done much to make teams fear their rushing game by averaging 72.5 yards per game, which has them at 9th in the CFL. The Toronto Argonauts average 369.6 yards per contest overall ranking them 3rd in the CFL and 2nd in the East. As a team, they have a total of 797 yards rushing through 11 games, so they are going to want to make some changes to the ground game if they want to make teams respect them.

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26 as 3.5-point road underdogs. They did lose to Winnipeg 29-21 on Oct. I still think Calgary is on a mission to right the wrong from the past two seasons as West Division Champs and Sunday is the first step with the SU win and cover. However, they beat the Blue Bombers 39-25 earlier in the year as 7.5-point favorites at home. The Stampeders are still the best team in the CFL by a wide margin when playing to form.

The Als are a very hungry team and should be able to keep up with the 2019 Stampeders. I'm taking the Als and the points on Saturday. Calgary has a winning SU record, but they havent exactly been blowing teams out of the water going 1-3 ATS at home. It's irrelevant to me who starts at QB for Calgary, but as long as Adams starts for Montreal, they'll hang around all game and might even upset.

I have to roll with the better team here and swallow the chalk take the Tabbies and lay the -10.5. The part of me that cheers for underdogs and hates watching a team take beat-down after beat-down wants to believe that the Lions have fixed their woes on offense and are going to be competitive Saturday. The Hamilton defense has looked very good this year, and that match-up against a struggling offense spells blow-out to me. The part of me that makes good handicapping decisions says no way.

Everyone knows how important winning the turnover battle is in football and hard it is to win outright when you give the ball away. Hammer the over. I like the Bombers SU and ATS, but my best bet is actually the OVER on the 54 total, both of these teams can score and it looks like the Bomber defense has been slightly overrated this week based on last week's performance. This game is likely to be a shoot out, not a defensive grind. The numbers catch up to them this week, and Bombers punish them for being careless with the rock. Ottawa has been beating that trend lately, but it can't go on forever.

Preview: Calgary at Toronto, wk.15

With the season on the line and an Alouette team ripe for a letdown, I'm rowing with the Argos Sunday and taking the +6 points. Iron sharpens iron and Toronto has faced the toughest competition the CFL has had to offer this year, and let us not forget their one win is against the league-leading Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Im going to fade any advantage Montreal might have playing in front of a mostly French-speaking crowd and back the Argos this week.

Theres been a perception around the CFL that this is going to be something of an easy game for the Stampeders, but thats really not the case, at all. Theyre missing the CFLs leader in receiving yards, Reggie Begelton, and Cory Greenwood, the linebacker who has the most tackles in the league. In fact, other than Eric Rogers, theres not a single Stampeders receiver on Fridays roster who has ever caught a touchdown pass. Begeltons absence is particularly notable, as the Stamps already have a depleted receiving corps.